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Tropical Storm IRWIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005
 
IRWIN REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER AND
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES OF 3.0 OR 45 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...MAINTAINING IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE
NEXT 96 HOURS AS SST'S REMAIN BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. IRWIN IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP IRWIN ON A
WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS
THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS.
  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 17.5N 111.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.6N 114.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.6N 116.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Aug-2005 02:55:15 UTC