ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 IRWIN REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER AND CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES OF 3.0 OR 45 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...MAINTAINING IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE NEXT 96 HOURS AS SST'S REMAIN BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. IRWIN IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP IRWIN ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.5N 111.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.6N 114.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.6N 116.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Aug-2005 02:55:15 UTC