Hurricane HILARY
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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005
THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY HAS
BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
FORTUNATELY...A TIMELY 0543Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS PROVED TO BE
BENEFICIAL IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DROP...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING TREND...WITH
DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 23.3N 119.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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