ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. FORTUNATELY...A TIMELY 0543Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DROP...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING TREND...WITH DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 23.3N 119.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2005 08:40:14 UTC