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Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT.  FOR A
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT
8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER
RAINBAND/EYEWALL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY
BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS.  BY
36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE
INEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY
WILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD. 
A GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS
WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

HILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W    95 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2005 14:55:15 UTC