ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. FOR A FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER RAINBAND/EYEWALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS. BY 36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE INEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY WILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD. A GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2005 14:55:15 UTC