Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS
AFFECTED GREG. THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS NOW LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CELL
IS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER INTENSIFIES
GREG TO HURRICANE STATUS BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS WARM...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE GFDL DOES SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

AT THE MOMENT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND GREG IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREG SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE ON ITS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.3N 113.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W    65 KT
 
 
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