ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS AFFECTED GREG. THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CELL IS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER INTENSIFIES GREG TO HURRICANE STATUS BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE GFDL DOES SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT THE MOMENT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND GREG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREG SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON ITS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.3N 113.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 14:55:12 UTC