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Hurricane FERNANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF FERNANDA WAS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF A SMALL
BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB...USING
THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...GIVES A T4.0...AND THE 6Z ODT 3-HR T
NUMBER WAS 4.1. ON THIS BASIS...FERNANDA IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
QUITE AS SYMMETRIC. WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER FERNANDA ARE ALREADY
COMING DOWN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS PEAKING A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OR AS SHOWN BELOW.  THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8...SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND
THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT
FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF THIS LOW AND
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY STEERED MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 16.5N 120.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 08:55:12 UTC