ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF FERNANDA WAS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...GIVES A T4.0...AND THE 6Z ODT 3-HR T NUMBER WAS 4.1. ON THIS BASIS...FERNANDA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS SYMMETRIC. WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER FERNANDA ARE ALREADY COMING DOWN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS PEAKING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OR AS SHOWN BELOW. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8...SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF THIS LOW AND SHOULD BE GRADUALLY STEERED MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 08:55:12 UTC