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Tropical Storm EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
EUGENE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER
BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS HAVE VIRTUALLY
DISSIPATED. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. APPARENTLY...THERMODYNAMIC
EFFECTS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MARINE LAYER... AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... HAVE HAD A
DRAMATIC IMPACT ON EUGENE. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 (35
KT) TO 3.5 (55 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH
MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS
TRENDS...CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS BY DAY 3 AND
DISSIPATION BY DAY 4.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...
WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEN TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW.
 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 20.4N 111.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Jul-2005 03:10:07 UTC