ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 EUGENE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. APPARENTLY...THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER... AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... HAVE HAD A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON EUGENE. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 (35 KT) TO 3.5 (55 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS TRENDS...CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS BY DAY 3 AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING... WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEN TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.4N 111.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Jul-2005 03:10:07 UTC