Tropical Storm EUGENE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005
 
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEPTH OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED... BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UNANIMOUSLY INCREASED TO T2.5/35
KT... WITH DATA T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS 3.0.  GIVEN THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL EUGENE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
A PEAK AT 55 KT... JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE CENTER OF EUGENE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST.  AS A RESULT...THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/10.  THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT 48 HOURS... ALTHOUGH AT GREATLY DIFFERING SPEEDS DUE AT
LEAST IN PART TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION STRENGTH. 
SINCE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION... THE CURRENT FORWARD
SPEED ARE DIRECTION ARE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL BUT SLOWER
THAN THE UKMET.  ON THIS TRACK... EUGENE SHOULD PARALLEL THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BUT THEN MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO THE WEST.   BEYOND 48 HOURS... A WEAKENING EUGENE AND
ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.1N 105.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 106.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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