ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005 ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEPTH OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED... BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UNANIMOUSLY INCREASED TO T2.5/35 KT... WITH DATA T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS 3.0. GIVEN THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL EUGENE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A PEAK AT 55 KT... JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF EUGENE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED EAST TO WEST. AS A RESULT...THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/10. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS... ALTHOUGH AT GREATLY DIFFERING SPEEDS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION STRENGTH. SINCE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION... THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED ARE DIRECTION ARE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL BUT SLOWER THAN THE UKMET. ON THIS TRACK... EUGENE SHOULD PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BUT THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE WEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS... A WEAKENING EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 105.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 106.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Jul-2005 21:10:05 UTC