Tropical Storm EUGENE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.  12Z DVORAK
T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB... CORRESPONDING TO AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  HOWEVER... SHIP MSTM6 AT 12Z...
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...
REPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM THE WEST.  SINCE WINDS COULD EASILY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EUGENE... THE
FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.  EUGENE
APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR... BEFORE REACHING THE 26
CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE AND PEAKS AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  EUGENE IS BEING STEERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... IN A LOCATION JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN AVERAGE FOR JULY.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
INDUCE EUGENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... AWAY FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENS AFTER 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER... EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW.


FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.1N 105.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN