ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. 12Z DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB... CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. HOWEVER... SHIP MSTM6 AT 12Z... LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... REPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM THE WEST. SINCE WINDS COULD EASILY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EUGENE... THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR... BEFORE REACHING THE 26 CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND PEAKS AT 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. EUGENE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... IN A LOCATION JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN AVERAGE FOR JULY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND INDUCE EUGENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENS AFTER 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.1N 105.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Jul-2005 15:10:06 UTC