Tropical Storm DORA

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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ACAPULCO RADAR...AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED BANDING
FEATURE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION...35 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 2 OF THE 3 AGENCIES...AND A 30 KT SHIP
REPORT FROM THE WEST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 35 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...310/8.  AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INCREASINGLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A COMBINATION OF THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE COAST SHOULD HINDER
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK
BRUSHING THE COAST.  DORA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.9N 100.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.1N 102.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 104.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.3N 105.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    40 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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