ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY...ACAPULCO RADAR...AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION...35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 2 OF THE 3 AGENCIES...AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT FROM THE WEST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...310/8. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED MID/UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INCREASINGLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COMBINATION OF THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE COAST SHOULD HINDER FURTHER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK BRUSHING THE COAST. DORA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.9N 100.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.1N 102.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 18.9N 104.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 19.3N 105.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 04-Jul-2005 20:55:04 UTC