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Tropical Storm CALVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
 
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL
EXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED.  IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH.  A
SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS LIKELY.  ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10.  CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2005 20:40:03 UTC