ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL EXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH. A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY. ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10. CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2005 20:40:03 UTC