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Tropical Depression THREE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005

CORRECTED EATERLY TO EASTERLY IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...AND CLOSE TO COAST
IN 2ND PARAGRAPH.
 
THE POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI PASS AT 0045Z AND THE ACAPULCO RADAR
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
LOCATION UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH WERE
2.5 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...
I PREFER TO HOLD THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KT.  ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN.  IN FACT...THE
GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS
GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOT DIMINISH THIS FORECAST
COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.  BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
REACHING COLDER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/3. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS TROUGH MAY
BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...AND THAT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEND THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST
THE CENTER WILL GET.  GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND CONSEQUENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 14.1N  98.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 14.8N  98.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Jun-2005 02:55:02 UTC