ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 CORRECTED EATERLY TO EASTERLY IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...AND CLOSE TO COAST IN 2ND PARAGRAPH. THE POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI PASS AT 0045Z AND THE ACAPULCO RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LOCATION UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH WERE 2.5 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY... I PREFER TO HOLD THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOT DIMINISH THIS FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REACHING COLDER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS TROUGH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...AND THAT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE CENTER WILL GET. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND CONSEQUENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.1N 98.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 14.8N 98.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Jun-2005 02:55:02 UTC