Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AS NOTED BY IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES AND AN INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT
IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
AFWA AND A 21/2130Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1000.1 MB. ALSO
...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AT 40 KT IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT THIS MOTION IS EQUAL TO THE 700
MB WIND FLOW EQUATES TO ABOUT A 36 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED...BUT REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN...AND BE TURNED MORE WESTWARD BY
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE BAM MODELS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 59 KT IN 48H.
THE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM
MODEL...WHEREAS THE 00Z SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...SO A NEAR AVERAGE
RATE OF STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL AROUND 60H OR SO... 
WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 13.9N 103.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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