ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS NOTED BY IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA AND A 21/2130Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1000.1 MB. ALSO ...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AT 40 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT THIS MOTION IS EQUAL TO THE 700 MB WIND FLOW EQUATES TO ABOUT A 36 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...BUT REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN...AND BE TURNED MORE WESTWARD BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE BAM MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 59 KT IN 48H. THE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL...WHEREAS THE 00Z SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...SO A NEAR AVERAGE RATE OF STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL AROUND 60H OR SO... WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEAKEN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.9N 103.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Jun-2005 02:10:03 UTC