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Hurricane ADRIAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ADRIAN WAS DECAYING RAPIDLY IN THE
HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE PRECISE TIME AND INTENSITY OF LANDFALL...THE OPERATIONAL
ESTIMATES BEING 65 KT AND 6Z...RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...A POST
STORM ANALYSIS MAY WELL CONCLUDE THAT ADRIAN CAME ASHORE AS A
TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE ONLY 55 KT...WHILE AFWA WAS STILL AT 65 KT.
 
WITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT
WITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL
SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY
WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.  SHOULD
ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 13.8N  88.9W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N  85.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N  83.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 20-May-2005 08:40:02 UTC