ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ADRIAN WAS DECAYING RAPIDLY IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PRECISE TIME AND INTENSITY OF LANDFALL...THE OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES BEING 65 KT AND 6Z...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...A POST STORM ANALYSIS MAY WELL CONCLUDE THAT ADRIAN CAME ASHORE AS A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ONLY 55 KT...WHILE AFWA WAS STILL AT 65 KT. WITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT WITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.8N 88.9W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 85.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-May-2005 08:40:02 UTC