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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.
TAFB AND SAB DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AND BASED
ON THE RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTING FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE
AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 06/2124Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/9.  MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING
THE CONU CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 35.2N  53.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  51.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 37.2N  49.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 38.6N  47.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 40.4N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  39.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0600Z 55.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 08:55:09 UTC