ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AND BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTING FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 06/2124Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/9. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.2N 53.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 51.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.2N 49.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.6N 47.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 40.4N 45.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 39.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 55.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 08:55:09 UTC