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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BEEN SEPARATED FROM THE CORE CONVECTION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS
STATIONARY...WHILE THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS
WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE CENTER
FROM THE CONVECTION.  THE UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL SHOW LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF VERY DRY AIR SWEEPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION
OF STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY REDEVELOPMENT EVEN
THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER.

HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURING INLAND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT ARE
DIMINISHING ALONG THE COASTLINE.  THESE RAINS STILL POSE A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 24.5N 108.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Oct-2004 08:46:41 UTC