ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN SEPARATED FROM THE CORE CONVECTION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS STATIONARY...WHILE THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION. THE UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF VERY DRY AIR SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY REDEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER. HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURING INLAND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE COASTLINE. THESE RAINS STILL POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 24.5N 108.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Oct-2004 08:46:41 UTC