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Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
JAVIER HAS NOT GENERATED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS
NOW...BUT THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z STILL SHOWED SOME WINDS OF CLOSE
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WITH THE CENTER ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS
FROM LANDFALL...IT WILL DO NO HARM TO CONTINUE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ADVISORIES UNTIL THEN.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE LONG ENOUGH TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/9...AND
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 26.1N 113.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 27.4N 112.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 29.2N 111.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 08:45:03 UTC