ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004 JAVIER HAS NOT GENERATED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS NOW...BUT THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z STILL SHOWED SOME WINDS OF CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WITH THE CENTER ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM LANDFALL...IT WILL DO NO HARM TO CONTINUE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE LONG ENOUGH TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/9...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 26.1N 113.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 112.5W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/0600Z 29.2N 111.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 08:45:03 UTC