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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GEORGETTE NOW
BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED...CENTERED ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BEGUN TO WARM AND WEAKENING MAY BE COMMENCING. CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.

NOW THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS CLEARER TO IDENTIFY...IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 280/10. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS
WEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER...THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE
STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT...PROBABLY
DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.

GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C...AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WEST OF
125W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE
DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
BALANCES THIS BY CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GEORGETTE SHOULD
DISSIPATE INTO A REMANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 19.7N 121.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 125.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 127.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.7N 129.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.0N 133.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 20:33:39 UTC