ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GEORGETTE NOW BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED...CENTERED ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW BEGUN TO WARM AND WEAKENING MAY BE COMMENCING. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. NOW THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS CLEARER TO IDENTIFY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS WEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER...THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT...PROBABLY DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WEST OF 125W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BALANCES THIS BY CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GEORGETTE SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO A REMANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER BERG/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.7N 121.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.9N 123.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.2N 125.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.5N 127.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.7N 129.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.0N 133.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 20:33:39 UTC