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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004
 
A 0902Z AQUA OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE REMAINS
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...AS ANALYSES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
15-20 KT OF EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES QUITE STRONG...WITH TOPS TO -88C.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND THE EXPOSED CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH 96 HR.  AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THE
OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WETSWARD DURING THE
FIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. 
AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A
WEAKENING GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HR...WHICH LEAVES GEORGETTE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM FROM THE 29C SSTS IT IS
CURRENTLY OVER TO 26C IN ABOUT 24 HR AND COLDER THAN 25C AFTER 48
HR.  BASED ON THIS AND THE FORECAST DECREASE IN SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT
ABOUT 24 HR AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 18.4N 111.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N 113.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 116.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.2N 118.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 20.4N 120.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Aug-2004 14:43:32 UTC