ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004 A 0902Z AQUA OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...AS ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES QUITE STRONG...WITH TOPS TO -88C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND THE EXPOSED CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 96 HR. AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WETSWARD DURING THE FIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...WHICH LEAVES GEORGETTE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM FROM THE 29C SSTS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER TO 26C IN ABOUT 24 HR AND COLDER THAN 25C AFTER 48 HR. BASED ON THIS AND THE FORECAST DECREASE IN SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ABOUT 24 HR AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.4N 111.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 113.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 116.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.2N 118.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 20.4N 120.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Aug-2004 14:43:32 UTC