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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LAST REMAINING CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHEARED FROM NINE-E AND THE SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AFWA AND
25 KT FROM TAFB. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CELLS OF
DEEP CONVECTION...DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR NINE-E TO REMAIN A REMANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SCALE OF THE CIRCULATION...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM HAS RESPONDED BY MOVING DUE WEST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND SHALLOW
LAYER BAM MODEL.
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 20.0N 129.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 130.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 02:33:33 UTC