ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LAST REMAINING CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED FROM NINE-E AND THE SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AFWA AND 25 KT FROM TAFB. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION...DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NINE-E TO REMAIN A REMANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS AND GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SCALE OF THE CIRCULATION...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM HAS RESPONDED BY MOVING DUE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND SHALLOW LAYER BAM MODEL. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 20.0N 129.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 130.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 02:33:33 UTC