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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 845 NMI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS
BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT
...FROM TAFB...AND SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT WIND VECTORS FROM A
23/1425Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THEREFORE...THE DISTURBANCE IS BEING
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE IS 050/02.
TD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...LIKELY
DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH STRENGTHENING HURRICANE FRANK
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE MODELS...UNFORTUNATELY...HAVE KEYED MORE
ON TD-9E THAN HURRICANE FRANK...EVEN THOUGH FRANK IS NOW CLEARLY
THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
MEDIUM BAM AND GFS MODELS...SINCE THE GFS BETTER INITIALIZED THE
DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE FRANK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR
EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO FRANK...
AND THEN TURN NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT WHEN FRANK PASSES
TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COLDER
WATER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TD-9E TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE DEPRESSION
COMES MORE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY THAT TIME.

ALTHOUGH TD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD WARMER 27C SST WATER
...THE CYCLONE IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION
...THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HURRICANE FRANK SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS OR SO...AND
THAT MAY INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.3N 123.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N 123.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 122.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.2N 124.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 125.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 131.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 136.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 20:23:20 UTC