ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 845 NMI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT ...FROM TAFB...AND SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT WIND VECTORS FROM A 23/1425Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THEREFORE...THE DISTURBANCE IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE IS 050/02. TD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH STRENGTHENING HURRICANE FRANK LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE MODELS...UNFORTUNATELY...HAVE KEYED MORE ON TD-9E THAN HURRICANE FRANK...EVEN THOUGH FRANK IS NOW CLEARLY THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFS MODELS...SINCE THE GFS BETTER INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE FRANK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO FRANK... AND THEN TURN NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT WHEN FRANK PASSES TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TD-9E TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE DEPRESSION COMES MORE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH TD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD WARMER 27C SST WATER ...THE CYCLONE IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION ...THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HURRICANE FRANK SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THAT MAY INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.3N 123.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.5N 123.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 18.5N 122.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.2N 124.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 19.7N 125.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 131.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 21.5N 136.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 20:23:20 UTC