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Tropical Storm FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
SINCE AFTER THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS ISSUED...SUBSEQUENT
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
FRANK IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. A BANDING
EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE THE
PAST HOUR...AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED IN 23/0927Z AQUA AND 23/1459Z SSMI
OVERPASSES. BASED ON THIS NEW INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 55 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 2 FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
 
NOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND APPEARS TO BE IN A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. FRANK HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM SSTS...SO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THAT
TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS FORCAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATER WITH SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING
IN 36-60 HOURS AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT.

DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST
...THE WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1645Z 17.8N 112.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W    85 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 17:03:17 UTC