ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1045 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 SINCE AFTER THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS ISSUED...SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FRANK IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE THE PAST HOUR...AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED IN 23/0927Z AQUA AND 23/1459Z SSMI OVERPASSES. BASED ON THIS NEW INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 55 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 2 FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND APPEARS TO BE IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. FRANK HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM SSTS...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS FORCAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WITH SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING IN 36-60 HOURS AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST ...THE WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1645Z 17.8N 112.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 17:03:17 UTC