Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ESTELLE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
ESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...WITH IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SEMICIRCLES AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS TREND AND ARE AT
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH T2.5...35 KT...FROM AFWA.
BASED ON THIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS...AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS SUGGEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS
SHOULD PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST
INTENSITY AT 60 KT IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE FROM 72 HOURS TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION OF ESTELLE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
285/11. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEYOND 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...
THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 14.2N 138.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.7N 140.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.3N 144.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 146.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 154.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 157.5W    60 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 20:33:13 UTC