ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SEMICIRCLES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS TREND AND ARE AT T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH T2.5...35 KT...FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 60 KT IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE FROM 72 HOURS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION OF ESTELLE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/11. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEYOND 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE... THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.2N 138.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.7N 140.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.3N 144.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 16.8N 146.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 154.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 157.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 20:33:13 UTC