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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004
 
LATEST FIXES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT
275/11. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EAST PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 17N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CAUSING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN INDICATE THE RIDGE
REBUILDING NE OF HAWAII BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. 

LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE T2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB AND T1.5...25 KT...FROM AFWA. BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL-DEFINED
NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAVE NOT INCREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 55 KT BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 11.7N 133.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.1N 134.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N 137.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 13.8N 139.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 154.5W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Aug-2004 14:43:20 UTC