ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004 LATEST FIXES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 17N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CAUSING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN INDICATE THE RIDGE REBUILDING NE OF HAWAII BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE T2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T1.5...25 KT...FROM AFWA. BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAVE NOT INCREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 11.7N 133.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.1N 134.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 137.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.8N 139.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 16.5N 154.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Aug-2004 14:43:20 UTC