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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004
 
INFRARED AND SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1395 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB AT 19/06Z...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THEN. A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER
...WHICH EQUATES TO A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A STEADY PACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT STAIR-STEP IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED IN 48 TO 72
HOURS DUE TO A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CAUSE IT TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OF COURSE...JUST HOW FAR NORTH
THE RIDGE MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...
SINCE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN MICROWAVE
DATA....AND GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND OVER 27-28 SSTS...FASTER
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 11.7N 132.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Aug-2004 09:03:11 UTC