ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004 INFRARED AND SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1395 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 19/06Z...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THEN. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER ...WHICH EQUATES TO A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING AT A STEADY PACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT STAIR-STEP IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED IN 48 TO 72 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CAUSE IT TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OF COURSE...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RIDGE MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER... SINCE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN MICROWAVE DATA....AND GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND OVER 27-28 SSTS...FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.7N 132.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Aug-2004 09:03:11 UTC