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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXTREMELY DISORGANIZED.  IN FACT...THE
INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE LIKE AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH
A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT THE TROUGH APEX.  SATELLITE FIXES ARE
WIDELY SPACED AND LOCATED EITHER ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR NEAR
THE APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 150 NM FARTHER NORTH. 
DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 2.0...AND RECENT IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SINGLE BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  A 30 KT DEPRESSION IS
MAINTAINED FOR NOW BASED ON THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...BUT WE WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LATER THIS MORNING.

SINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IF IT EVEN EXISTS AT THE
SURFACE...IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10
RELIES HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED WNW MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO
DISSIPATE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS....AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR
SOONER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION UNTIL
THEN...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 13.5N 133.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 137.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.1N 139.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.6N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 14:42:36 UTC