ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXTREMELY DISORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE LIKE AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT THE TROUGH APEX. SATELLITE FIXES ARE WIDELY SPACED AND LOCATED EITHER ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR NEAR THE APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 150 NM FARTHER NORTH. DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 2.0...AND RECENT IMAGERY INDICATES THE SINGLE BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY. A 30 KT DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW BASED ON THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LATER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IF IT EVEN EXISTS AT THE SURFACE...IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10 RELIES HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WNW MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION UNTIL THEN...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.5N 133.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 137.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.1N 139.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.6N 142.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 14:42:36 UTC